Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.433487 2.570854 2.719188 2.892682 3.091942 3.316090 3.590996
2025-03-16 2.208077 2.388072 2.593143 2.848572 3.165224 3.555645 4.093259
2025-03-23 2.106185 2.316118 2.564829 2.890018 3.319392 3.894288 4.783871
2025-03-30 1.985171 2.204465 2.470402 2.828753 3.321806 4.021087 5.205020
2025-04-06 1.883537 2.106290 2.381031 2.759644 3.297365 4.096368 5.560177
2025-04-13 1.808221 2.034636 2.318152 2.716940 3.300461 4.208097 6.015897
2025-04-20 1.774495 2.012393 2.316103 2.754884 3.423319 4.532923 7.053478
2025-04-27 1.759605 2.012493 2.342246 2.833226 3.617366 5.029779 8.916570
2025-05-04 1.720167 1.977719 2.318021 2.834569 3.685808 5.310264 10.557459
2025-05-11 1.685081 1.946648 2.296476 2.837136 3.755380 5.613514 12.887539
2025-05-18 1.631073 1.887748 2.232662 2.769530 3.692462 5.606437 13.823222
2025-05-25 1.599288 1.857595 2.207904 2.760822 3.734616 5.858868 17.239636
2025-06-01 1.567650 1.827531 2.183327 2.753138 3.782964 6.160775 23.802461
2025-06-08 1.529639 1.787408 2.142469 2.716517 3.771964 6.306980 32.019953
2025-06-15 1.515184 1.779059 2.147123 2.754104 3.911935 6.953994 275.200967
2025-06-22 1.476764 1.735866 2.098321 2.698826 3.854403 6.959798 NaN
2025-06-29 1.438522 1.691877 2.046822 2.636292 3.775826 6.874841 NaN
2025-07-06 1.408552 1.658731 2.010398 2.597565 3.744401 6.949922 NaN
2025-07-13 1.399153 1.654231 2.016572 2.631979 3.874889 7.692109 NaN
2025-07-20 1.399041 1.662767 2.042642 2.702868 4.100277 9.075119 NaN
2025-07-27 1.382278 1.646804 2.030297 2.704082 4.163070 9.790198 NaN
2025-08-03 1.366613 1.631943 2.019023 2.706400 4.229267 10.637055 NaN
2025-08-10 1.337321 1.596605 1.974635 2.645249 4.127653 10.310215 NaN